Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff, securing a fourth term. [S1][S3][S4]
Verification result: verified, because independent reports from Unchained and Newsweek each state both that Lula won and that prediction markets had favored Bolsonaro, with no validated material contradiction. [S4][S5]
The reported final tally was 51.8% for Lula to 48.2% for Flávio Bolsonaro. [S2][S5]
On runoff day, Polymarket and Kalshi put Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 80%, while Kalshi still priced Lula at 21% shortly after 8:30 p.m. ET. [S2][S4]
Flávio Bolsonaro led the Oct. 4 first round with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%. [S5]
Lula became the first first-round runner-up to win a runoff since direct elections returned in 1989. [S4]
After the result, Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede and said he would seek annulment over the two-hour voting extension. [S4][S5]
The defeated candidate was Flávio Bolsonaro, whom CNBC identifies as the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. [S2]
The Guardian’s 51.79%-48.21% figures and the rounded 51.8%-48.2% figures elsewhere are consistent after rounding. [S1][S2]
Prediction-market odds use different methods from political polls and are not substitutes for them. [S2]
